The ANZ Truckometer reports the growth trend of the New Zealand economy remains solid but it is keeping a nervous eye on a potential broadside from the weakening global economy.
Central banks around the globe look to be increasingly pushing on a string when they cut rates says the Truckometer, and this is the wildcard which could affect the local economy.
However, if left to its own devices the NZ economy could keep on keeping on for quite a while yet, a glance across the usual binge indicators (debt, inflation, the current account deficit…) that can typically portend a turn in the economic cycle reveals few hangover worries – though housing bears watching, says the Truckometer.
Locally the heavy traffic index is concurrent with GDP. It rose by 0.9% in January (seasonally adjusted), on top of a 3.4% bounce the previous month.
While one month of data is not much to say about quarter one just yet, its a good start to 2015 – particularly coming off the back of a sizeable lift in December 2014.
The light traffic index gives a 6-month lead on the economy. It was flat in January (seasonally adjusted) after lifting by 2% in December. It continues to suggest solid growth rates over the next six months.
The current upward trend in light traffic flows will be supported by lower petrol prices, and the associated boost to household purchasing power means the broader economy usually follows.
All up the Truckometer suggests the domestic economy is trucking on at around trend growth rates.
