Global oil prices have spiked following unprecedented joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran, raising fresh concerns about fuel costs and supply chain disruption for New Zealand.
WTI crude futures jumped as much as 10% to above US$75 a barrel — the highest level in eight months — before easing slightly but remaining sharply higher. Brent crude has also rallied strongly on fears of supply disruption.
Markets are closely watching the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint that handles about one-fifth of global oil shipments. Shipping companies have begun rerouting vessels amid warnings the passage could be restricted, escalating volatility in energy markets.
The strikes have triggered Iranian retaliation across the Gulf region, disrupting airspace and maritime traffic. Several major container lines, including MSC, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, have suspended transits through Hormuz, while parts of the Middle East airfreight network have experienced closures and rerouting.
For New Zealand, the immediate concern is fuel.
Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen told RNZ that volatility was likely in the days ahead.
“Usually you see stocks drop so I wouldn’t be surprised if people were looking at some of the investments they might have — their KiwiSaver balances… you might see a bit of red ink coming through there.”
Olsen says oil markets are particularly sensitive to conflict in the region.
“There’s a pretty strong view that oil prices will spike and show a bit more volatility — although we’ve said that every time there’s been conflict, and it didn’t really happen last time.”
He says some traders are predicting oil could test US$100 a barrel if the conflict escalates.
Higher crude prices typically feed through to petrol and diesel prices in New Zealand within weeks. Increased shipping insurance premiums and fuel surcharges can also push up freight rates, potentially flowing through to consumer prices.
New Zealand freight firm Go Logistics has warned customers to expect delays and cost pressures.
In a client update, the company says European air cargo routes — many of which rely on Middle Eastern carriers such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways — are already being affected as freight is rerouted.
It also expects sea freight transit times to lengthen amid renewed instability in the Red Sea and Gulf region.
The firm flagged likely increases in fuel surcharges, bunker adjustment factors (BAF), war-risk premiums and insurance costs, along with the risk of congestion across global supply chains.
International supply chain analysts say the situation could worsen if the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. Around 170 container ships are currently inside the waterway facing restrictions, according to shipping intelligence data, while crude tanker traffic has fallen sharply.
Although OPEC+ announced it would increase output by 206,000 barrels per day from April, analysts say the modest adjustment represents less than 0.2% of global demand and may do little to offset disruption risk.
Much will depend on whether oil can physically move through the Gulf.
New Zealand imports all of its refined fuel, making it vulnerable to global price swings even though it does not source oil directly from Iran.
If shipping disruption persists, experts say the impact could extend beyond fuel into broader freight costs, insurance premiums and inflation pressures — adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global economy.
