ANZ says the two Truckometer indexes more than unwound their December surge in January, returning to trend.
The Heavy Traffic Index fell 4.3%, while the Light Traffic Index which leads growth in the economy by six months, fell 1.4% month on month.
The Heavy Traffic Index suggests that GDP growth in 2015 Q4 could be well north of 1% quarter on quarter according to ANZ.
“But the January data provides an early hint that we may well see some recoil in quarter one,” says ANZ Truckometer.
“However, the Light Traffic Index still has a strong upward trend, suggesting real momentum in the economy as we kick off the coming year,” it says.
“We are assuming the falls in the two traffic indexes are primarily monthly volatility. Nonetheless, we can’t be complacent; traffic volumes provide real-time economic signals,” says ANZ Truckometer.
The ANZ Truckometer says global financial market gyrations highlight the fact that the main risks to economic growth emanate from offshore.
“We will be watching the Truckometer indexes carefully for an early heads-up on any impact on domestic activity,” says ANZ Truckometer.
