The ANZ Truckometer light traffic index lifted a further 0.6% in October while the heavy traffic index eased 3% as traffic settled following the second Auckland lockdown.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says traffic volumes “returned to more normal volatility over October as activity settled down after alert levels eased and catch-up activity was evident”.
“Like many charts of economic data, the Truckometer charts have been somewhat mangled by the lockdown period. However, they clearly show the story of 2020: a sudden stop, a sharp rebound, renewed restrictions, and renewed catch-up activity.
“As the volatility is reducing, the indexes appear to be settling comfortably above year-ago levels. The heavy traffic index in October was 7.1% higher than a year ago, while the light traffic index is 5.9% higher than a year ago.
“This overshoot may dissipate over coming months as there are some aspects of this shock that are yet to play out fully. We estimate the closed border knocks out about 5% of GDP, but this will hit disproportionately over the summer. The impact on traffic is even more difficult to estimate.
“But the ANZ Truckometer is consistent with the messages from the ANZ Business Outlook. The economy has regained considerable momentum, though there is still caution about what might be around the corner,” Zollner says.
