The ANZ Truckometer showed heavy traffic was down for the month of November after a strong lift the previous month.
The heavy traffic index eased 1.9% month-on-month after a 4.6% gain in October.
The light traffic index, which gives a six-month lead on the broader economy, rose 0.1% m/m, with annual growth continuing to slow.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says the trends are setting in.
“When smoothed to reduce the ups and downs, it’s now clear that the trends in both Truckometer indexes have flattened off noticeably. They have frequently done this before, only to march upward again subsequently, particularly the heavy traffic index, but it’s worth keeping half an eye on.
“The ANZ heavy traffic index has been quite volatile lately, but at face value, the index suggests another quarter of GDP growth approaching 1% q/q is unlikely in Q3. However, an average of the first two months of the last quarter is sending more positive signals about GDP growth in Q4.
“Annual growth in the light traffic index is now reducing more noticeably. This is still consistent with our forecast that annual GDP growth will remain in a 2½-3% range over the next year, but any further declines would cast a shadow,” Zollner says.
