The two ANZ Truckometer indexes lifted in September; traffic flows rose on all but one road in the light and heavy traffic indexes.
“If the strength in the month of September can be sustained, the economy may well be in for a better second half,” says the ANZ Truckometer.
“The main risks to this picture are out of New Zealand’s control: the El Nino threat and the global outlook,” it says.
It was a case of ‘the third month saving the quarter’ for both the heavy and light traffic indexes in September.
The heavy traffic index lifted 1.7% in the month of September and 1.2% in the September quarter as a whole.
This lift suggests Q3 GDP growth in a 0.5-1.0% q/q range, which would be an improvement on the lacklustre rates seen in the first half of this year.
The light traffic index typically leads GDP by six months.
It rose 2.5% in September and is up 0.8% on a quarterly basis.
After a period of consolidation, this result restores the strong upward trend that had been evident since mid-2013, boding well for momentum into next year, in the absence of any untoward events.
“While we need to be wary of reading too much into one month’s result, which has of course followed months of subdued readings, the rebound in both indicators is welcome,” says ANZ.
“It is not just the Truckometer that has lifted. We have now seen a range of our proprietary indicators (business confidence, consumer confidence, commodity prices) trough and show a degree of uplift,” says the ANZ.
