The ANZ Truckometer indexes bounced back in August from July’s weather disruptions, but ANZ Research is warning that GDP growth might be lacklustre in the third quarter of 2017.
The heavy traffic index lifted 6.2% in the month (seasonally adjusted), while the light traffic index rose 2.6% month on month.
The Light Traffic Index lifted 2.6% m/m in August (seasonally adjusted), more than recovering its 2.2% fall in July.
This index gives a 6-month lead in the direction of the economy, and ANZ Research is saying it is best interpreted as a measure of momentum.
The indexes are trending up, but despite the bounce-back, the trend in the heavy traffic index has flattened off a little says ANZ Research.
The ANZ heavy traffic index bounced back 6.2% in August after falling a hefty 5.5% in July (seasonally adjusted).
“This bounce back strongly supports our contention that the July weakness was related more to weather than changes in economic fundamentals,” says ANZ Research.
“Of course, the broader business would also likely have been disrupted by the terrible July weather, but traffic will be subject to an outsized impact,” it says.
“The heavy traffic index is still trending upward, but possibly not as strong as it was. The recent volatility makes it hard to know. It does raise the possibility of relatively lacklustre GDP growth in Q3,” says ANZ Research.
