ANZ’s Truckometer saw both of its economic indicators slump during September, suggesting weak economic growth in the later half of the year that will continue into 2013.
The ‘truckometer’ system is based on monitoring selected roads for traffic flow, which has proven to be a relatively good indicator of the economic condition of the country.
Falls of both the heavy and light vehicle indexes suggest the pace of annual economic growth is set to ease from its current 2.5% pace.
The heavy data uses flows of vehicles weighing more than 3.5 tonnes on 11 roads, and is contemporaneous with GDP growth.
It fell 5.3% in September, undoing its gains of the previous two months, and falling to its lowest level since July 2011.
This suggests the relatively strong growth seen in the first half of 2012 is unlikely to be sustained in Q3, for which it is predicting slightly negative growth in GDP.
The second data set uses light traffic flows (primarily cars) on nine roads around the country. It gives a six-month lead on GDP growth, albeit with more hits and misses than the heavy index.
The volatility in the series means looking at the trend is usually the best strategy.
It fell 2.1% in September, more than unwinding its August rise. The light traffic index suggests weakness in the economy will persist into the first quarter of next year.
