The ANZ Truckometer light traffic index was up 0.2% y/y in January while the heavy traffic index jumped 4.1% for the period.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says the flat trend in light traffic, which provides a six-month lead on momentum in the economy, is matching lacklustre GDP, and in per capita terms is flattening out after a sharp drop.
“Neither light nor heavy traffic particularly corroborate the very sharp Q2/Q3 drop in GDP reported in the latest release, though some other indicators do,” Zollner says.
Heavy traffic data tends to provide a good steer on production GDP in real time, as it captures both goods production and freight associated with both wholesale and retail trade.
“Heavy traffic can be volatile, so we’ll see if the January lift persists into next month before drawing strong conclusions, but it’s good to see a broad-based bump higher,” Zollner says.
