ANZ bank’s Truckometer lifted again in December, back up from a slow November – with overall growth looking steady.
The Truckometer is a measure of economic activity using real-time traffic data – focusing particularly on heavy transport. The measure is said to forecast Gross Domestic Product – a key measure of the economy – by around six months.
For December, the Heavy Traffic Index lifted 2.1%, after falling 2.8% in November, while light traffic lifted 1.5%.
The broad trends for growth remain solid, albeit at what appears to be a moderating pace the bank says.
“On the whole, the broad message across the Truckometer is consistent with our take on the economy: solid but moderating,” says senior economist Sharon Zöllner. “We’re seeing the normal volatility you’d expect from month to month in such an indicator, but amidst very respectable trends.”
Zöllner says it is offshore factors that threaten the economy this year.
“Plummeting oil prices, the prospect of higher US interest rates, and a strengthening USD are threatening to expose excessive risk-taking and borrowing in the cheap- money years following the Global Financial Crisis,” she says. “But New Zealand continues to experience solid growth with no inflation problem.
“It would be blinkered to conclude that this is the new sustainable normal. History tells us otherwise. But let’s enjoy it while it lasts.”
