Transporting New Zealand says many freight operators will be relieved to see the end of a difficult 2025, with early indications suggesting conditions are beginning to improve heading into the new year.
Chief executive Dom Kalasih says the sector has endured one of its toughest periods in recent memory, but recent data and feedback from operators point to a gradual uptick in confidence and demand.
Stats NZ reported GDP grew 1.1 per cent in the September quarter. While the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts have revised near-term growth downward, they still predict annual GDP for the year ending March 2026 will rise 0.9 per cent, before strengthening to 2.8 per cent the following year.
Kalasih says Transporting New Zealand’s membership team has seen a noticeable shift on the ground.
“Last year we were regularly hearing from members that business was the worst it had ever been, and many firms were really struggling. Now we’re hearing anecdotal reports that demand and business confidence is up, and that’s supported by the latest economic data,” he says.
“It’s still tough out there for many road freight operators, and margins remain tight. However, it’s good to see things improving heading into 2026. The stress and strain operators are under in tough times is huge, and these positive signs will be a massive relief for business owners and their staff.”
The December ANZ Truckometer showed heavy vehicle movements — a strong proxy for real-time GDP — were up 0.9 per cent on the previous year.
Stats NZ figures also show GDP in the transport, postal and warehousing sector rose 0.6 per cent in the September quarter, partially rebounding from a 1.9 per cent fall in June. Annual average growth in the sector to September 2025 was 0.3 per cent.
“Stats NZ noted that one of the upward drivers of GDP was increased capital investment, up 3.2 per cent in the September quarter, driven by transport equipment. This is good news for productivity and safety across the transport network,” Kalasih says.
“The Government’s Investment Boost policy will be playing a key role in supporting this capital investment.”
Kalasih says he is optimistic the Government’s programme of infrastructure investment, road-revenue reform and productivity-focused regulatory changes will help drive growth in 2026.
“The Government needs to keep pushing its growth-orientated agenda next year, including making ambitious land transport rule reforms to lift freight productivity,” he says.
