Mainfreight expects to exceed market forecasts for both revenue and profit in the year to March 31, 2025, despite uncertainty caused by ongoing US-China tariff negotiations.
In a trading update to the NZX, the freight giant says full-year profit before tax and sales revenue are expected to surpass market consensus of $375 million and $5.1 billion, respectively. The accounts are still being finalised and remain unaudited, with final results due later this month.
Mainfreight’s share price jumped more than 12%, rising to around $62 per share following the May 2 update.
The company says April trading in its Air & Ocean division was consistent with previous years, though disrupted due to Easter and ANZAC holidays.
“However, we are seeing a reduction in forward sea freight bookings for May on the Transpacific trade route, China to USA,” Mainfreight says.
“Alongside these reductions, a number of customers wishing to continue to ship from China to the USA are placing freight bookings on hold until a more defined outcome is achieved on tariff negotiations.”
The Transpacific lane accounts for about 10% of Mainfreight’s total Air & Ocean freight volume. The company expects “tonnage reductions on the Transpacific trade lane are inevitable while tariff negotiations continue to provide uncertainty for importers and exporters alike”.
Export volumes to the US from other regions remain stable.
“Export trade into the USA from our other locations (Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Southeast Asia) remains largely unaffected at this stage,” it says.
“Many customers in these regions have a ‘wait and see’ approach with normal business conditions being adopted during the 90-day tariff suspension period.”
Mainfreight says its presence in 27 countries across five regions provides “ongoing opportunity should USA trade reduce – reflecting the diversity of our growing international network”.
Its US division is expected to contribute about 7% of group profit before tax.
“Whilst we remain dissatisfied with this performance and return, the USA market continues to provide growth opportunity.
“Mainfreight remains well positioned to take advantage of both internal and external supply chain opportunities that are likely to eventuate once trade negotiations are completed and some form of normality returns to USA trade,” it says.
Mainfreight’s audited full-year results and further commentary will be released on May 29.
