The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment has released a medium to long term employment outlook forecasting high job growth for retail trade and accommodation, business services, utilities and construction.
According to the MBIE outlook, employment in the local manufacturing of machinery and equipment and metal products, is also predicted to grow strongly.
This outlook is based on average annual GDP growth of 2.9% and 2.8% over the 2014-19 and 2019-24 periods, respectively, as indicated by the latest available macroeconomic forecasts covering exports, imports and consumption growth.
Labour market trends Manager David Paterson says employment growth is forecast to remain above the long-run average (1.7%) in the medium-term to 2019 but decline slightly afterwards.
“In the medium-term, steady employment growth is anticipated to be matched by increasing labour supply, resulting from high net migration,” he says.
“However, increasing labour supply constraints arising from an ageing population, along with lower net migration, underpin the long-term outlook.”
The forecasts in this report are used to inform MBIE’s advice relating to immigration policy and priority setting for tertiary education and industry training.
