The ANZ Truckometer light traffic index lifted 6.4% in September, while the heavy traffic rebounded 13.4% month-on-month.
Both light and heavy traffic lifted as restrictions eased overall, but remain well short of pre-COVID levels, ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says.
“Differing regional lockdown restrictions mean that the Truckometer indexes are unlikely to be a reliable GDP indicator in the near term.
“The light traffic index in particular has a northern skew, and so with the Auckland border closed, has recovered only a little of its large fall last month.
“Heavy traffic has bounced back more than light traffic (as indeed it has in Auckland itself), reflecting the greater degree of economic activity that is now possible under level 3, and exemptions for essential workers to cross the Auckland boundary.
“Neither light nor heavy traffic fell nearly as much as in lockdown last year in terms of either monthly changes or activity lows, but given the restrictions in Auckland are set to be much longer lasting, this does not necessarily imply a smaller hit to GDP overall,” Zollner says.
“More positively, both New Zealand and international experience suggest that economic activity does rebound vigorously once restrictions are lifted, as long as fiscal policy has stepped up to cushion the blow in the meantime.”
Zollner says the immediate hit to GDP and foregone economic activity “is not actually a particularly meaningful indicator of the economic outlook”.
“Unlike most of the rest of the world who faced into unstoppable COVID in 2020 with no clear path out, New Zealand is in the incredibly fortunate position that the vast majority of us will have had the opportunity to get vaccinated before we face a high risk of being exposed to the virus, and we have a clear path out of lockdown via vaccination.
“This too shall pass, but the more of us who get vaccinated, the quicker it will do so,” she says.
