The ANZ Truckometer light traffic index fell 6.4% month-on-month in October while the heavy traffic index lifted 1% m/m.
“Differing regional lockdown restrictions mean that the Truckometer indexes are unlikely to be a reliable GDP indicator in the near term,” ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says.
“October was messy, with restrictions tightened in the Waikato area, and coming and going in parts of Northland. Both light and heavy traffic remain well short of pre-Delta levels.
“Overall, heavy traffic has bounced back more than light traffic, reflecting that the supply chain is permitted to cross the Auckland boundary whereas personal travel is highly restricted.
Neither light nor heavy traffic fell nearly as much as in lockdown last year in terms of either monthly changes or activity lows, but the disruption has been prolonged, Zollner says.
“Looking forward, New Zealand is on a path to ongoing easing in restrictions via vaccination – though the details remain somewhat murky.
“Experience both in New Zealand and overseas suggests a vigorous bounce-back in both traffic flows and activity will occur, though falling consumer confidence suggests some scope for disappointment for retailers anticipating a ferocious Christmas rush.”
