Global trade is set to grow at a faster pace over the next five years, even as the US signals a return to protectionist policies under President Donald Trump’s administration, according to the newly released DHL Trade Atlas 2025.
The report, published by DHL in partnership with the NYU Stern School of Business, provides data-backed insights into global trade patterns, covering nearly 200 countries and territories.
“While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously, global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits that it delivers for economies and societies,” says Steven Altman, senior research scholar and director of the DHL Initiative on Globalisation at NYU Stern.
“While the US could pull back from trade – at a significant cost – other countries are not likely to follow the US down that path because smaller countries would suffer even more in a global retreat from trade.”
According to the report, global goods trade is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029—outpacing the previous decade and roughly aligning with GDP growth.
Even if all of the US administration’s proposed tariffs are implemented and other countries retaliate, trade is still expected to grow—albeit at a slower rate.
DHL Express chief executive John Pearson comments: “It’s impressive to see how international trade continues to withstand every conceivable challenge, from the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts.”
Asia leads the way
India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are projected to be the top trade growth performers between 2024 and 2029, ranking among the top 30 countries for both growth speed and scale.
India is forecast to contribute 6% of additional global trade over the period, trailing only China (12%) and the United States (10%). Meanwhile, South and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and ASEAN countries are expected to experience the fastest regional growth, with annual rates between 5% and 6%.
Despite a global push for nearshoring and regional production, international trade is becoming even more global. The average distance for traded goods hit a record 5000km in the first nine months of 2024, while intra-regional trade dropped to a new low of 51%.
Shifting US-China dynamics
The report reveals that direct trade between the US and China has declined—from 3.5% of world trade in 2016 to 2.6% in early 2024—but not enough to mark a true decoupling. Evidence also suggests that US reliance on Chinese-made goods remains steady, with “Made in China” inputs still prevalent in goods imported via third countries.
“US trade barriers could strengthen ties among other countries,” the report notes, while also pointing out that the US share of world imports (13%) and exports (9%) is not enough to unilaterally determine the future of global trade.
“There is still significant potential for trade growth in advanced and emerging economies worldwide,” Pearson says.
