New Zealand exporters remain resilient in the face of global trade headwinds, with two-thirds maintaining or growing export volumes over the past year, according to the 2025 ExportNZ DHL Export Barometer.
The annual survey shows 79% of exporters either increased or maintained export levels in the last 12 months, while 59% expect to boost exports in the coming year despite heightened concerns over tariffs and trade wars.
DHL Express New Zealand commercial vice president Selina Deadman says the results show a positive outlook for cross-border trade.
“It’s encouraging to see that the majority of New Zealand exporters have continued to ship internationally over the past year.
“International trade has faced increased scrutiny due to upcoming barriers, it’s a positive indication that exporters are optimistic about cross-border trade, and it will be interesting to see how these expectations evolve in 2026.
“This also reflects the confidence that DHL Express has in globalization and its importance in economic growth.”
When the survey was conducted, New Zealand was at the baseline 10% tariff level with the elimination of the ‘de minimis’ scheduled for 2027. At that point, 53% of respondents said they would continue focusing on the US market through 2026. Since then, the tariff has increased to 15% and the de minimis removal has been brought forward to August 2025, creating what ExportNZ says will be a real test for exporter confidence.
ExportNZ executive director Joshua Tan says businesses were already looking for ways to reduce risk.
“This year’s survey results show strongly that Kiwi businesses are considering new markets outside their traditional, with the likes of the United Kingdom (41%) and Japan (27%) both seeing an increase of 4% in exporter interest.
“In the case of the UK, this shift is likely influenced by the New Zealand-UK Free Trade Agreement, which came into effect in mid-2023 and is starting to deliver outcomes.”
The survey found the biggest barriers to exporting were the cost and availability of transport and logistics (49%) and the high cost of doing business domestically (31%).
Concern over an escalating trade war jumped to 27%, up 15% from last year.
“Increased concern around trade wars becoming a barrier was expected, with a 15% rise from last year. Concerns over high tariffs due to a lack of trade agreements also saw a 7% increase,” Tan says.
Exporters were split on the support they wanted from NZTE, with 25% saying they needed no assistance, while others sought more help with research and development (20%) and access to market research (20%).
The most popular forms of government support were ‘more free-trade agreements with new partners’ (32%) and ‘support for attending trade shows’ (32%).
The full report will be released in late August, with an online webinar hosted by DHL and ExportNZ on August 20 to discuss key findings and offer cost-reduction advice to exporters.
