The ANZ Truckometer is a measure of economic activity using real-time light and heavy traffic data.
Seasonally adjusted traffic flows lifted on 10 of 11 roads in the heavy traffic index in September, and on 6 of 10 roads in the light traffic index.
The ANZ heavy traffic index lifted 1.8% in September (seasonly adjusted) after falling 1.2% in August.
The strong month saw the index rise 1.4% in the September quarter, restoring the upward trend. However, the index continues to suggest a growth slowdown ahead.
The ANZ light traffic index leads GDP by six months. It lifted 0.7% in the month of September and 0.1% in the September quarter (seasonly adjusted).
It suggests ongoing solid momentum over the second half of the year. While this prediction is based largely on data that pre-dated the sharp dairy price fall, it does illustrate that the domestic economy has plenty of pep.
This matters hugely when facing growth headwinds such as declining terms of trade, says ANZ.
Both indexes are suggesting a moderation in growth lies ahead, but the heavy traffic suggests the third quarter, while the light traffic suggests next year.
Neither index is yet suggesting a sharp slowdown lies ahead. While the Truckometer indexes suggest that recent stellar growth rates are unlikely to be sustained, and indeed growth could drop below trend for a quarter, there is no indication of a crash-and-burn scenario ahead.
