The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index lifted 0.5% in April (seasonally adjusted),1 recovering half of its March fall. The upward trend in the index remains in place, with data for the first quarter of the year consistent with quarterly GDP growth of around 1.0%. Flows on 8 of the 11 roads used to construct the index rose in April (sa).
The ANZ Light Traffic Index rose 0.1% in April (sa), maintaining its March lift.2 The index increased 0.5% in the first quarter of the year, versus 1.0% in the previous quarter, which – given the index leads GDP by 6 months – suggests that Q3 quarterly growth will be a little slower than growth in Q2. The overall picture is that economic momentum will continue through the middle of the year, though the pace is perhaps starting to ease a little.
Light traffic rose on half of the 10 roads in the index in April (sa).
ANZ says we may well be past the peak of quarterly growth in the current upswing. However, annual growth will continue to accelerate, and the ANZ Truckometer continues to suggest the economy will keep trucking along into the middle of the year.
The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index comprises flows of vehicles weighing more than 3.5 tonnes (primarily trucks) on 11 selected roads around NZ. It is contemporaneous with GDP growth.
The ANZ Light Traffic Index is made up of light or total traffic flows (primarily cars and vans) on 10 selected roads around the country. It gives a six month lead on GDP growth.
