Increasing biofuels and hydrogen for heavy commercial vehicles, phasing out of light internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles within 11 years and ending energy generation from coal by 2035 are among actions proposed by the Climate Change Commission.
The ICE import timeline fits with an independent study released last week.
The commission’s newly released draft advice is open for consultation until March 14 with final advice released before May 31, after which the government will respond with an Emissions Reduction Plan before the end of the year.
“Reaching our emissions reduction targets by 2050 is both achievable and affordable according to the commission’s advice,” prime minister Jacinda Ardern says.
“Last term we set our long-lived gases and methane targets and asked the commission for independent guidance on how to get to them. That’s exactly what they have produced. They have also confirmed our goals are achievable if we act decisively and collectively,” she says.
“The report demonstrates we have the tools we need to achieve our target, but calls on us to accelerate our work. As a government we are committed to picking up the pace and focusing much more on decarbonisation and reducing emissions rather than overly relying on forestry.”
Reducing emissions is expected to create new job, business, and export opportunities while also seeing a reduction in energy bills for most households, the government says.
It adds that action is needed across all sectors of the economy, with a particular focus on transport, agriculture and energy.
The release of the draft advice is hailed by climate change minister James Shaw as a significant milestone in the government’s response to the climate emergency.
The commission has proposed the first three five-year emissions budgets and advised that New Zealand’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement will need to be strengthened in order to be compatible with global efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.
The commission estimates the cost of meeting its proposed budgets would be equivalent to less than 1% of projected gross domestic product (GDP).
Electric vehicles
Its draft advice says: “Electric vehicles are currently more expensive to purchase than internal combustion engine vehicles but are cheaper to run. Their upfront costs are expected to fall further leading to significantly lower lifetime costs. In addition to saving emissions, they also improve local air quality and reduce noise pollution. For these reasons, our path sees ambitious adoption of light electric vehicles, including cars, vans and utes, with no further internal combustion engine light vehicles imported after 2032.
“This would mean more than half of all light vehicle travel would be in electric vehicles by 2035 and 40% of the light vehicle fleet would be electric vehicles by 2035.”
The commission says medium and heavy trucks are slower to electrify.
“This is because the current battery technology does not allow for the greater daily distances they need to travel. Of the trucks imported in 2030, 15% of medium trucks and 8% of heavy trucks would be electric. By 2035, these would increase to 84% and 69% respectively.”
Low carbon fuels
It says the use of low carbon fuels, such as biofuels and hydrogen, needs to increase, particularly in heavy trucks, trains, planes, and ships.
“Low carbon fuels will play an important role in reducing emissions from transport. Even if Aotearoa rapidly converts to EVs, biofuels or hydrogen are likely to be needed for ships, trains, aircraft and long-distance trucks,” the commission says.
It says New Zealand will need 3% of domestic liquid fuels to be low carbon by 2035, which is approximately 140 million litres per year.
Achieving this would require building about another seven plants with similar capacity to Z Energy’s existing Wiri biofuel plant which produces around 20 million litres per year.
“Low carbon fuels are more expensive than fossil fuels, and Aotearoa does not currently have incentives or regulations in place to help them become more competitive, or to increase demand. Aotearoa also currently lacks facilities to produce biofuels and hydrogen, limiting their supply.”
It also points to a lack of commercially viable sustainable aviation fuel supply in New Zealand and says government incentives are needed such as grants or tax credits to improve competitiveness with fossil fuels.
With rail, it says there is potential to further develop overhead electrification as well as the use of battery-hybrid or low carbon fuel locomotives.
“There is also the potential to shift freight from road to coastal shipping,” it says.
