Under utilised capacity in the transport market, coupled with a weakening Kiwi dollar and looming diesel price hikes, sees some truck brand distributors being a bit more cautious in their forecasts for 2017.
“We’ve had significant increases in truck sales in the last seven years, but I think 2017 will flatline from a market perspective,” says Hino Distributor’s general manager Michael Doeg.
Doeg comments that in the 11 months to November 30, Isuzu Trucks saw 1131 new vehicles registered, followed by Hino on 608, and Fiat on 606!
He points out that growth in light-duty trucks has come from the 3.5-tonne to 4.5-tonne segment of that market, where the Fiat Ducato leads by a significant margin.
Both the medium-duty and heavy-duty truck segments have declined year-on-year, according to Doeg, with the year-to-date figure at November 30 seeing a 2.1% increase in overall market registration numbers.
“We’ve had significant growth in truck sales in the last seven years, and there has been a significant shift in the breakdown of sales where heavy-duty trucks no longer account for 50% of new vehicle registrations,” he says.
Doeg agrees the growth in the light-duty truck market has come from both online shopping and the rise of home deliveries, as well as logistics hubs relocating outside major metropolitan areas, which sees freight transferred to smaller trucks for urban delivery.
“Piecing all the indicators together, I think we’ve found a new level for the truck market in 2016, and it may not continue into 2017,” Doeg says.
A weakening Kiwi dollar will make the new product more expensive in 2017, and there are indicators for fuel prices to start rising as well, in addition to feeling the ongoing effects of the Kaikoura earthquakes within the freight and logistics industry.
Isuzu Trucks forecasts heavy-duty growth
Isuzu Trucks general manager Colin Muir reckons that the new heavy truck market will bounce back up in 2017, while medium-duty segment will remain flat, and light-duty truck will also flatten off.
“It’s a logical assumption because the heavy-duty market took the biggest hit in 2016, and the indicators seem to suggest that heavy will bounce back,” Muir says.
He also remains bullish that the truck market in 2017 will hit 4000 units.
“Our aim is to try and achieve a similar result in 2017 to that which we met in 2016, our pre-allocation to end users is already strong, but we are mindful of the headwinds of aggressive competition with a new product,” he says.
Muir comments that more than 60% of the Isuzu Truck dealer network in New Zealand invested in renovations, rebuilding and upgrading their premises in 2016 to better supply and service their customers.
“The investment made by the dealer network in people, property, and process was unbelievable,” he says.
Muir also says the company renewed its three-year distribution contract with Isuzu Motors Japan, which gives him further confidence that the factory is more than comfortable with the current business operation in New Zealand.
