ACT leader and Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour says new data tracking crude oil shipments to Asian refineries supplying New Zealand provides the “best intel yet” that fuel supplies will continue without major disruption, despite ongoing global uncertainty.
Seymour says while public focus has been on domestic fuel stock levels and incoming shipments, attention should also turn to upstream supply.
“Everyone has been focused on the amount of fuel in New Zealand and the number of ships on their way here. That’s an important question, but what about one step back?” he says.
“Where are the Singaporean, Korean, and Japanese refineries that supply New Zealand getting crude if their traditional supply from the Arabian Gulf is closed? How much crude is still headed to those refineries?”
He says the question is critical as it provides early warning signals for future supply and reflects whether those refineries can continue exporting to markets such as New Zealand.
“This question matters because a) it gives us the earliest warning of what our future holds, fuelwise and b) the simple logic is that if those refineries have supply they’ll sell to New Zealand (we are paying as much as any other developed country). If they don’t have supply, then it doesn’t matter how much they like us, they can’t sell what they don’t have.”
Seymour says he asked Wellington-based Starboard Maritime Intelligence to analyse crude shipments to the Asian refineries that supply New Zealand.
“They’ve delivered and, for now, it’s great news.”
He says the data shows crude volumes to those countries are expected to increase compared with the same period last year.
Last April, an estimated 175 million barrels of crude went to those countries. Starboard estimates that, this April, around 190 million barrels will go there. This month is projected to be above the average of the last 12 months.
Seymour says the increase includes supply from alternative sources beyond the Arabian Gulf.
“This includes crude from new sources they haven’t previously relied on, such as the U.S., Brazil, and West Africa.”
However, he cautions the situation remains fluid and fuel prices remain a concern.
“We are not out of the woods yet, everything can change. One thing we WANT to change is the prices. It would still be better to have peace and normal transit in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Despite the uncertainty, Seymour says the latest data provides reassurance.
