Signals from the ANZ Truckometer in February are consistent with solid growth across the economy; and the economists are are picking nearly 3% annual average growth over 2015 despite drought impacts.
While ANZ economists are keeping a nervous eye on offshore developments, with New Zealand’s two largest trading partners experiencing slowing growth,
New Zealand itself is bucking that trend and showing considerable pep.
The ANZ Truckometer indices for light and heavy traffic flow gave a mixed picture in February – monthly indicators do typically oscillate from month to month.
The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index fell 1.3% in Februay, but it was off a strong lift over the previous two months (seasonally adjusted). The ANZ Light Traffic
Index leads GDP by six months. It lifted 1% in February, after being flat the previous month (sa).
The two indexes show solid growth when monthly noise is smoothed out.
The heavy traffic index lifted 1.7% in the three months to February and the light traffic index 1.4%.
Seasonally adjusted traffic flows fell on 8 of 11 roads in the Heavy Traffic Index in February, whereas traffic on 7 of 10 roads in the Light Traffic Index rose.
All up, the Light Traffic Index suggests the foot is flat on the floor; the Heavy Traffic Index suggests the revs are already pretty high.
