The ANZ Truckometer heavy traffic index fell 4.1% month-on-month for December signalling a slowing economy.
On top of a 2.3% fall in November, the report suggests “modest” fourth quarter GDP growth as a result of the seasonally adjusted traffic flows.
The light traffic index fell 1.9% month-on-month and suggests the economy could lose momentum over the next six months.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says the data is “volatile and it is too soon to call a change in trend”.
“But the Truckometer indexes are now clearly flashing warning lights about a slower growth path for the New Zealand economy.
“The heavy traffic index correctly picked that September quarter GDP growth would be modest (0.3% q/q). With the weak December month read, it is now suggesting a similar growth outturn in the December quarter.
“The light traffic index also read Q3 GDP quarterly growth well. It is more optimistic about Q4.
“However, it is sending warning signals about GDP growth into the middle of this year, given we’ve just seen the weakest quarterly growth in the index since 2012,” Zollner says.
