The ANZ Truckometer light traffic index fell 3.1% in November, while the heavy traffic eased 0.3% m/m.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says the lack of tourists is becoming evident in car traffic, while the heavy traffic index is suggesting “a stonking Q3 GDP outturn, but possibly negative growth in Q4”.
“Both indexes are higher than a year ago, but the overshoot in the heavy traffic index is now reducing.
“In broad terms, heavy traffic primarily reflects the movement of goods, while light traffic captures the movement of people. In normal times, light traffic provides a lead on momentum in the economy, whereas heavy traffic is a real-time indicator of goods production.
“Some of the November weakness likely reflects that November is typically the first big month of the summer season for inbound tourism. There are going to be a lot fewer people than normal in New Zealand over the summer, and that will show up in traffic.
“In terms of GDP outturns, the heavy traffic index got Q2 right, and is suggesting a near 15% rise in GDP in Q3.
“The signs aren’t so good for Q4 growth, however, with the average across October and November nearly 2% lower than the average in Q3.
“It may end up signalling a fall in GDP in Q4. The data is still so volatile, however, that the month of December could well still change the picture,” Zollner says.
