In recent months I have been asked several times about the place of hydrogen as a transport fuel.
My response has been an enthusiastic “you betcha!” There are many reasons why I see hydrogen as a must and the important role it will play as a transport fuel in coming years.
More on that later.
However, what I was not expecting when providing my views was the strength of opposition to hydrogen-powered vehicles.
Some of this opposition came, in my view, from surprising places.
Readers of this column will know that I am a member of the Government’s Electric Vehicle Programme Leadership Group.
The subject has come up several times in recent meetings and some of the members almost go apoplectic at why anyone would want to talk about hydrogen as a transport fuel source, especially for light vehicles.
In the last month I attended a presentation by a visiting consultant who was hosted by Z Energy and Deloitte, who I hasten to add don’t necessarily support the views of the presenter.
What was puzzling was that while the presenter gave a very good explanation of the need to decarbonise transport, when speaking about hydrogen he was downright dismissive.
His views on the rate of electrification of the fleet match more closely what we in industry believe, which is not as bullish as many governments here and abroad believe and certainly not as bullish as the figures in the ICCC report to our Government.
He had me nodding my head in agreement with him until he clarified his view on hydrogen.
His view was the inefficiencies in converting electricity to hydrogen to run a fuel cell where electricity is generated to drive the electric motors is not great.
Yes, it is an inefficient process.
No one is saying it is not, you simply cannot ignore thermodynamics.
However, the point of hydrogen as a transport fuel is not about inefficiencies, it is about lowering or eliminating CO2 emissions from the transport task.
This point seems to be lost on some of my colleagues on the EV Leadership Group too.
Currently the long run marginal cost of wind generation is about $90 to $105 per MWh this compares to the average retail price of electricity at $170 MWh.
As we move to generating more renewable electricity the cost of new wind generation is getting cheaper.
Someexpect this cost to reduce to about $70 to $80 per MWh within the next few years and possible to about $50 per MWH by 2030.
All this is to say generating electricity from wind is getting cheaper.
Solar power is also getting cheaper by the year and more efficient.
You do not need bright sunlight for it to work either, just daylight.
As the country heads to a greater proportion of its generation from renewable sources, more wind power generating capacity will need to be installed.
The thing is, with our combination of wind, hydro and geothermal (the latter which is not carbon neutral), wind generation gets turned on and off, which makes the current economics of wind less exciting.
Now imagine a world where wind generation stays on all the time (that there is wind blowing) and when it is not needed for general electricity generation it instead makes hydrogen.
It is entirely plausible.
In this example, from a transport perspective we don’t care about efficiency, just that hydrogen is made from renewable sources.
Hydrogen absolutely makes sense for heavy vehicles.
The weight of the fuel cell is miniscule compared to the weight of a large battery pack for heavy vehicles and the range from a fuel cell is impressive.
It even makes sense for light vehicles once the cost of the hydrogen fuel becomes more economical and it will.
And this is where I differ from the naysayers.
I find it interesting that the EV evangelical brigade are gloating when noting that only a decade ago saying full electric vehicles will dominate our vehicle mix would generate guffaws of disbelief? A decade on who is laughing now?
They have a gall to laugh at those of us who have open minds and are technology agnostic.
The truth is, we will need all types of carbon-free transport options, including hydrogen, to reach our 2050 goals legislated by Government.
