The latest ANZ ‘Truckometer’ report confirms the lift in economic momentum is real and will persist, ANZ.
Both Truckometer indexes consolidated in August after large rises in July, and seasonal adjustments.
The ‘heavy traffic’ Index – which shows a strong contemporaneous relationship to GDP – held its gains in August, falling just 1.5% after seasonal adjustments. This follows a 10% jump in the index in July.
ANZ says the upward trend in the ‘heavy traffic index ‘s now definitive, boding well for GDP over coming months.
“Drought-related timing impacts may be causing some volatility in economic out-turns and dataflow, but the assertive upward trend is good news about the economy’s underlying vibe.”
The ‘light traffic index’ – which predicts GDP growth six months ahead- fell 0.3% after rising 0.8% in July.
While the trend in this series is upward, the rate of increase is slowing.
ANZ says the index suggests the current lift in economic momentum will persist over the second half of this year and into the next.
The trend in this index is now nearly back at its pre-recession peak.
The ANZ’s ‘Truckometer’ uses data on heavy truck flows to predict economic performance.
