ANZ has just released its Truckometer index report for February 2014 which measures economic growth through light and heavy real time traffic data across New Zealand.
The ANZ Truckometer indexes suggest that the GDP strength seen in Q3 was more than a flash in the pan; that the NZ economy is now settling into a sustained period of growth over 2014 – albeit that quarterly growth may have already peaked.
New Zealand faces challenges in maintaining the economic upswing says ANZ. The growth outlook is unbalanced and tilted towards construction and domestic demand. Private debt is already high; New Zealand cannot afford a borrow- and-spend mentality to take hold. In addition, the supply side matters hugely – an ongoing focus on efficiency from all parties is necessary to prevent inflation pressures rising. No one wants to see aggressive OCR lifts spoil the party.
The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index rose 1.7% in January (seasonally adjusted). This lift follows a 1.4% rise in December and cements the steep upward trend in the index. Flows on 9 of the 11 roads in the index rose in January (SA).
The ANZ Light Traffic Index rose 1.2% in January (SA), on top of a small rise in December. The upward trend has moderated slightly but is still looking very secure. Light traffic rose on 9 of the 10 roads in the index in January (SA).
Some moderation in growth rates would not be surprising in light of the growth surge in the second half of 2013, but the Truckometer continues to flag solid momentum across the economy says ANZ.
