The ANZ Truckometer heavy traffic index has had its weakest quarterly growth in seven years suggesting slow GDP growth ahead.
The heavy traffic index was up 2.4% month-on-month in September and the light traffic index down 0.3% m/m.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says the overall trend shows decline and suggests “economic growth is going to continue to wane for a while yet”.
“Annual growth in both the light traffic index and the heavy traffic index is currently sitting around zero.
“The light traffic index gives a six-month lead on GDP growth while the heavy traffic index is real-time, but they both agree that the economy is going to continue to lose momentum into the end of the year.
“On a quarterly basis, the light traffic index suggests that quarterly growth will continue to trend down over at least the next six months. However, it is important to note that the growth in traffic is still consistent with positive GDP growth outturns, albeit modest ones.
“It looks nothing like 2008/09, when light traffic growth bottomed out at -2% q/q.
“For its part, the quarterly change in the heavy traffic index is sending a very weak signal for Q3 GDP growth,” Zollner says.
